Elections have always provided researchers with an ideal opportunity to demonstrate the accuracy of public opinion polling.

Since 2013, Insights West has issued successful forecasts (defined as publishing voting intention surveys completed in the three days prior to an election) in twenty-three different municipal, provincial, regional and U.S. democratic processes.

In twenty-two of these election calls, the winner of the election was properly predicted (the other was a statistical tie heading to election day), and the cumulative error for contending parties, candidates or options was lower than each survey’s advertised margin of error.

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British Columbia Provincial Election – May 2017

Insights West Result
BC Liberals 41% 40%
BC New Democratic Party (NDP) 41% 40%
BC Green Party 17% 17%
Others / Independents 2% 3%

Margin of error: +/- 3.6%
Cumulative error: +/- 0.5%

View a visual representation of our 2016 U.S. Election tracking

Evolution of the Vote in the 2016 U.S. Election

Popular Vote, United States Presidential Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Hillary Clinton (D) 49% 48%
Donald Trump (R) 45% 46%
Gary Johnson (L) 4% 3%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 1%
Other candidates 1% 1%

Margin of error: +/- 3.3%
Cumulative error: +/- 0.6%

Arizona, United States Presidential Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Hillary Clinton (D) 45% 45%
Donald Trump (R) 47% 49%
Gary Johnson (L) 5% 4%
Jill Stein (G) 2% 1%
Other candidates 1% 1%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative Error: +/- 0.8%

California, United States Presidential Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Hillary Clinton (D) 58% 62%
Donald Trump (R) 35% 32%
Gary Johnson (L) 3% 3%
Jill Stein (G) 2% 2%
Other candidates 2% 1%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative Error: +/- 2.0%

Nevada, United States Presidential Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Hillary Clinton (D) 46% 48%
Donald Trump (R) 46% 46%
Gary Johnson (L) 5% 3%
Other candidates 3% 3%

Margin of error: +/- 5.2%
Cumulative Error: +/- 1.0%

Washington, United States Presidential Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Hillary Clinton (D) 55% 54%
Donald Trump (R) 39% 38%
Gary Johnson (L) 4% 5%
Jill Stein (G) 1% 2%
Other candidates 1% 1%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative Error: +/- 0.8%

Arizona, U.S. Senate Election – 2016

Insights West Result
John McCain (R)) 54% 57%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 46% 43%

Margin of error: +/- 5.2%
Cumulative error: +/- 3.0%

California, U.S. Senate Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Kamala Harris (D) 64% 63%
Loretta Sanchez (D) 36% 37%

Margin of error: +/- 5.5%
Cumulative error: +/- 0.5%

Washington, U.S. Senate Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Patty Murray (D) 59% 59%
Chris Vance (R) 41% 41%

Margin of error: +/- 5.2%
Cumulative error: +/- 0.0%

Washington, Gubernatorial Election – 2016

Insights West Result
Jay Inslee (D) 55% 54%
Bill Bryant (R) 45% 46%

Margin of error: +/- 5.2%
Cumulative error: +/- 0.0%

Arizona, Proposition 206 – 2016

Insights West Result
Yes 60% 58%
No 40% 42%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative error: +/- 2.0%

California, Proposition 63 – 2016

Insights West Result
Yes 62% 63%
No 38% 37%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative error: +/- 1.0%

California, Proposition 64 – 2016

Insights West Result
Yes 58% 57%
No 42% 43%

Margin of error: +/- 5.1%
Cumulative error: +/- 1.0%

Nevada, Question 1 – 2016

Insights West Result
Yes 62% 51%
No 38% 49%

Margin of error: +/- 5.3%
Cumulative error: +/- 11%

Washington, Initiative 1433 – 2016

Insights West Result
Yes 62% 57%
No 38% 43%

Margin of error: +/- 5.2%
Cumulative error: +/- 5.0%

Manitoba Provincial Election – April 2016

Insights West Results
Progressive Conservatives 53% 53%
New Democratic Party 28% 26%
Liberal Party 10% 14%
Green Party 7% 5%
Other parties 1% 2%

Margin of Error: +/- 4.8%
Cumulative Error: +/- 1.8%

Saskatchewan Provincial Election – April 2016

Insights West Result
Saskatchewan Party 61% 63%
New Democratic Party 29% 30%
Liberal Party 4% 4%
Green Party 4% 2%
Other parties 2% 2%

Margin of Error: +/- 4.6%
Cumulative Error: +/- 1.0%

Canadian Federal Election (British Columbia) – October 2015

Insights West Result
Liberal Party 35% 35%
Conservative Party 31% 30%
New Democratic Party 27% 26%
Green Party 7% 8%
Other parties 0% 1%

Margin of Error: +/- 3.1%
Cumulative Error: +/- 0.6%

Canadian Federal Election (Alberta) – October 2015

Insights West Result
Conservative Party 51% 59%
Liberal Party 26% 25%
New Democratic Party 17% 12%
Green Party 4% 3%
Other parties 3% 1%

Margin of Error: +/- 3.6%
Cumulative Error: +/- 3.4%

Metro Vancouver Transportation and Transit Plebiscite – May 2015

Insights West Result
Yes 37% 38%
No 63% 62%

Margin of Error: +/- 2.5%
Cumulative Error: +/- 1.0%

Alberta Provincial Election – May 2015

Insights West Result
New Democratic Party 42% 41%
Progressive Conservatives 23% 28%
Wildrose Party 27% 24%
Liberal Party 4% 4%
Alberta Party 3% 2%
Other parties 2% 1%

Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Cumulative Error: +/- 1.8%

Edmonton Mayoral Election – October 2013

Insights West Result
Don Iveson 53% 62%
Karen Leibovici 24% 19%
Kerry Diotte 17% 16%
Other candidates 6% 3%

Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%
Cumulative Error: +/- 3.0%

Calgary Mayoral Election – October 2013

Insights West Result
Naheed Nenshi 71% 74%
Jon Lord 20% 21%
Other candidates 9% 5%

Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%
Cumulative Error: +/- 4.5%
Article: Five Things to Ponder When Looking at Polls