Clinton is Ahead of Trump as U.S. Presidential Election Approaches

The popular vote shows clear differences in gender, age and education.

Vancouver, BC – Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton heads to tomorrow’s presidential election in the United States with a lead in the popular vote, new research conducted by Insights West has found.

Clinton also looks set to carry the states of California and Washington with the support of more than half of decided voters, while Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona. Both nominees are tied in Nevada.

National Vote

Across the United States, 49% of decided voters say they will vote for Clinton (+2 since an Insights West poll conducted in October), while 45% would cast a ballot for Trump (+4). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are in single digits (4% and 1% respectively).

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Support for Clinton is strongest among women (54%), Americans aged 18-to-34 (55%), residents of the Northeast (55%) and Americans with at least one university degree (55%). Trump is more popular with men (50%), Americans aged 55 and over (49%), residents of the South (49%) and Americans who have not attended college or university (53%).

Arizona

Trump, who held a five-point advantage over Clinton among decided voters in September, heads to Election Day with a slimmer margin in the Grand Canyon State (47% to 45%), with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 5% and Green candidate Jill Stein at 2%.

Republican incumbent John McCain is ahead of Democratic contender Ann Kirkpatrick by eight points among decided voters (54% to 46%) in the U.S. Senate race. Three-in-five decided voters in Arizona (60%) support Proposition 206, which seeks to raise the minimum wage and guarantee annual paid sick time.

California

Hillary Clinton looks set to carry California’s 55 electoral votes in the presidential race, with a 23-point lead over Donald Trump among decided voters (58% to 35%). In the race for the U.S. Senate, almost two thirds of decided voters in the Golden State (64%) would choose Kamala Harris over fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

There is also majority support among decided voters for Proposition 63, which seeks to prohibit the possession of large-capacity ammunition magazines (62%) and Proposition 64, which would legalize marijuana under state law (58%).

Nevada

The two main presidential nominees are tied in the Silver State (46% for Clinton, 46% for Trump), with Johnson taking 5% of decided voters.

Three-in-five decided voters in Nevada (62%) would vote “Yes” on Question 1, which would establish mandatory background checks for gun sales or transfers.

Washington

More than half of decided voters in the Evergreen State (55%) would vote for Clinton, while 39% would support Trump.

Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee of the Democratic Party holds a 10-point lead (55% to 45%) over Republican challenger Bill Bryant. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray remains ahead of Republican contender Chris Vance (59% to 41%).

Most decided voters would support Initiative 1433, which would increase the state minimum wage, require employers to provide paid sick leave, and adopt related laws (62%).

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About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

National Vote – Results are based on an online study conducted from November 4 to November 7, 2016, among a representative sample of 940 likely voters in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Click to view the detailed data tabulations for the National Vote.

Western States – Results are based on online studies conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2016, among representative samples of 392 likely voters in Arizona, 401 likely voters in California, 387 likely voters in Nevada, and 402 likely voters in Washington State. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for each state. Click to view the detailed data tabulations for Arizona, California, Nevada and Washington.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: Gage Skidmore