Conservatives Hold on to Sizeable Lead in Alberta

The New Democrats dropped four points since August, while the Liberals gained six points.

Calgary, AB – The governing Conservative Party is still ahead of all rivals a month before Albertans take part in the Canadian federal election, a new Insights West poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample shows that, if the federal election were held today, 52% of decided voters in Alberta (-6 since August) would vote for the Conservative candidate in their constituency. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is a distant second with 22% (-4), followed by the Liberal Party with 18% (+6) and the Green Party with 7% (+4).

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The Conservatives are ahead among male and female voters (56% and 48% respectively), and among residents aged 35-to-54 (55%) and those over the age of 55 (63%). The NDP is still first among Albertan voters aged 18-to-34 (36%).

About three-in-four decided voters in Alberta (73%) say they will not change their mind before the election, including 86% of those who intend to vote for the Conservatives next month. The numbers are lower for voters who plan to cast a ballot for the Liberals (70%), the Greens (62%) and the NDP (49%).

Approval, Momentum and Best Prime Minister

Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper maintains the highest approval rating in Alberta (49%, -3). The three other party leaders have lower numbers: Official Opposition and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair (39%, +5), Green Party leader Elizabeth May (36%, +4) and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau (also 36%, +8).

As was the case last month, May has the best momentum score with +10 (20% of Albertans say their opinion of her has improved since the campaign began). Mulcair is now at -14, Harper is at -13 and Trudeau is at -9.

When asked who would make the Best Prime Minister of Canada, Harper keeps the upper hand with 41% (-3), followed by Trudeau with 15% (+6), Mulcair with 13% (-2) and May with 7% (+2).

Issues and the Contenders

Most Albertans (55%, =) continue to consider the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing Canada, followed by government accountability (10%, -1) and health care (7%, -3).

Prime Minister Harper is still deemed as the best candidate to tackle seven issues: energy and pipelines (46%), crime and public safety (43%), foreign affairs (43%), the economy and jobs (40%), health care (31%) and government accountability (30%). Mulcair is ahead on housing, poverty and homelessness (28%), while May is preferred on the environment (33%).

Harper is also ahead of the other leaders on handling the fight against ISIS (45%), surveillance and Bill C-51 (34%), the future of the Senate (27%), helping Canada’s war veterans (26%) and the future of Canada Post (also 26%). Harper is virtually tied with Mulcair on child care (24% to 23%)

Across Alberta, 55% of residents believe it is time for a change of government in Canada. Still, about half of Albertans believe an electoral victory for the Liberal Party (49%, -9) or the NDP (51%, -3) would make them “very upset.” Only 38% say they would be “very upset” if the Tories hold on to government.

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 18 to September 21, 2015, among 590 adult Albertans. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Click here to view the detailed data tabulations.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: joevare