Federal B.C. Battleground Ridings Too Close to Call

New results released in seven British Columbia ridings.

Burnaby, BC – With days left in the federal election campaign, riding-level telephone polls conducted by Insights West for Dogwood Initiative show races getting tighter in the Lower Mainland, North Island and Interior.

“Many voters are still making up their minds in some of these ridings,” said Mario Canseco, Vice President of Public Affairs at Insights West.  “The state of affairs is certainly tighter than it was in the spring.”

While the NDP remains dominant in the southern Vancouver Island riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, farther north in Courtenay-Alberni the Conservative incumbent has moved into a statistical tie. The interior riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay is another two-way race.

This is the third time Insights West has polled in these ridings since May, allowing residents to track shifts in voting intentions over time.

“In some of these ridings, the NDP remains ahead, but not with the massive leads it enjoyed before,” said Canseco. “In the North Shore, the Liberal Party has definitely improved its standing during the campaign.”

The study was funded by Dogwood Initiative, British Columbia’s largest nonpartisan citizen group. Local volunteer teams are calling thousands of Dogwood supporters in an effort to boost voter turnout.

“More than half a million British Columbians have already voted, which suggests a high level of engagement in the election,” said Kai Nagata of Dogwood Initiative. “With so many ridings up for grabs, what happens here in B.C. could very well determine the balance of power in the next Parliament.”

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

The results of this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted from October 5 to October 10, 2015, among:

– 400 adult residents of the Courtenay—Alberni riding
– 300 adult residents of the Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke riding
– 301 adult residents of the South Okanagan—West Kootenay riding
– 301 adult residents of the Vancouver South riding
– 400 adult residents of the North Vancouver riding
– 403 adult residents of the West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country riding
– 400 adult residents of the Burnaby—North Seymour riding

The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/-5.6 percentage points for ridings where 300 interviews were completed and +/-4.9 percentage points for ridings where 400 interviews were completed, 19 times out of 20. Click here for a presentation of these results.

Click here for a look at three waves of polling in BC’s electoral battlegrounds.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

Kai Nagata
Energy & Democracy Director, Dogwood Initiative
778-829-6493
kai@dogwoodinitiative.org

 

Photograph: Scazon