Most Albertans Predict One-Term Tenure for Provincial NDP

But voters are divided on whether the province’s main opposition parties should merge, absorb or remain separate.

Calgary, AB – Albertans who voted for the Wildrose Party or the Progressive Conservative Party in last year’s provincial ballot overwhelmingly believe the governing New Democratic Party (NDP) will not win the next election, a new Insights West poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Albertans, two thirds of residents (67%) think a party other than the NDP will form the government in the next provincial election. This proportion includes 54% of those who voted for the current governing party in May 2015, as well as 83% of Progressive Conservative voters and 92% of Wildrose Party voters.

In spite of the belief that the NDP will be defeated in the next election, Albertans disagree on which actions the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties should take at this point. A majority (53%) support leaving the two parties separated as they are now, while just over a third (36%) favours creating a new party, with a different name, that unites them both.

Fewer Albertans would be satisfied with inviting PC members to join the Wildrose Party (30%) or inviting Wildrose members to join the PC Party (26%).

Wildrose Party voters in the 2015 provincial election are slightly more likely to support creating a new united party (57%) than leaving the two parties separated (53%). PC voters from the last provincial election feel almost the same way about either option (48% would leave the parties separated, 46% would create a new united party).

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“The exercise to unite-the-right at the federal level, which was ultimately successful, is definitely on the minds of Albertans,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “At this point, a majority of Wildrose voters are open to the idea of a full merger, as well as almost half of Progressive Conservatives.”

One-in-five Albertans (20%) consider themselves as far-left, left or centre-left on the political spectrum, while three-in-ten (29%) deem themselves far-right, right or centre-right. About one-in-four (23%) say they are at the centre, including 27% of PC voters and 26% of NDP voters in 2015.

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 9 to March 12, 2016, among a representative sample of 602 Albertan adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Click here to view the detailed data tabulations.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: Kurt Bauschardt