Two Thirds of Manitobans Want A Change of Government

Support for the Progressive Conservative Party surpasses the 50% mark.

Vancouver, BC – Voters in Manitoba are ready for a different political party to take control of the Legislative Assembly, a new Insights West poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, two thirds of Manitobans (67%) believe it is time for a change of government in the province, including 49% of those who voted for the governing New Democratic Party (NDP) in the 2011 election. More than half of Manitobans (54%) say they would be very upset if the New Democrats form the government again after tomorrow’s election.

More than half of decided voters in Manitoba (53%, +4 since an Insights West survey conducted in early April) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their riding. The New Democrats are second with 28% (+2), followed by the Liberal Party with 10% (-7) and the Green Party with 7% (=).

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The Progressive Conservatives outperform the New Democrats in Winnipeg (46% to 32%), and have amassed an impressive level of support in the rest of the province (66%, with the NDP at 19%). The NDP is holding on to just 62% of the voters who cast a ballot for them in 2011. In stark contrast, the retention rate for the Progressive Conservatives is 95%.

Voters who are supporting either of the two main parties in the province are not likely to change their minds before election day (92% for PC and 90% for the NDP). While 81% of Liberal voters say they are not likely to support a different party tomorrow, the proportion is lower for the Greens (57%).

The approval question did not undergo much fluctuation for Official Opposition and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister. As was the case earlier this month, 45% of Manitobans approve of his performance.

Incumbent Premier and NDP leader Greg Selinger heads to the election with an approval rating of 25% (+2), while the proportion of residents who hold favourable views of Liberal leader Rana Bokhari dropped by six points to 20%. About two-in-five Manitobans (38%) approve of Green Party leader James Beddome, although 44% are undecided about his performance.

Beddome is the only party leader with a positive momentum score in the final week of the campaign (+23, with 28% of residents saying their opinion of the Green leader has improved, and 5% saying it has worsened). All other party leaders hold negative numbers on this question: Pallister with -12, Selinger with -31 and Bokhari with -39.

The PC leader continues to dominate on the preferred premier question, with 36% of Manitobans saying Pallister is the best person for the job. Selinger is a distant second with 16%, with Beddome (7%) and Bokhari (5%) in single digits.

Pallister remains ahead of his rivals on specific issues, with at least a third of Manitobans saying he is the best person to handle the economy and jobs (39%), crime and public safety (37%), government accountability (35%) and energy and pipelines (33%). The PC leader is also the top choice on education (33%) and health care (30%).

On housing, poverty and homelessness, Pallister and Selinger are practically tied (23% and 22% respectively), while Beddome is regarded as the best leader for the environment (32%, with Pallister at 22%).

“The final week of the campaign saw a drop in support for the Liberal Party, and higher name recognition for the leader of the Green Party,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “Still, the New Democrats were unable to match the numbers from the Progressive Conservatives, on both voting and leadership.”

There was little change on the issue question, with the economy and jobs (29%, +1) identified as the most important one for residents, followed by health care (21%, -1), housing, poverty and homelessness (15%, +1) and accountability (11%, =).

About Insights West:

Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

About this Release:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 15 to April 18, 2016, among 518 Manitoba adults, including 424 decided voters in the 2016 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.3 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.8 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty. Click here to view the detailed data tabulations.

For further information, please contact:

Mario Canseco
Vice President, Public Affairs, Insights West
778-929-0490
mariocanseco@insightswest.com

 

Photograph: Joanna Poe